Coverage
For the south, it covered Barangays Babag, Basak Pardo, Buhisan, Bulacao, Cogon Pardo, Guadalupe, Kalunasan, Kinasang-an, Mambaling, Pasil, Pung-ol Sibugay, Punta Princesa, Pahina San Nicolas, Sinsin, Suba, Sudlon II, and Tagbao.
Abrenica said the barangays were chosen by drawing lots.
The March survey involves 1,402 respondents covering already all 80 barangays of the city, 46 in the north district (685 respondents) and 34 in the south district (717 respondents).
The elective posts considered in the survey are only those of the mayor, vice mayor and congressional representatives for both the north and south districts.
Abrenica said it did not include council candidates because of their logistical limitations.
To ensure randomness on their surveys, Abrenica said their enumerators were instructed to identify a specific location in each barangay to serve as their starting point.
From there, they interviewed every fifth household.
In analyzing the data, Abrenica said that from November to March, Osmeña appears to have overtaken Rama by 8.2 percentage points.
But for every 10 voters, five preferred Osmeña while four would have voted for Rama at the time the surveys were conducted.
Unpredictable
“The race between Rama and Osmeña is still unpredictable as voters still continue to explore their choices. It’s a tight race between the two of them,” she said.
Sought for comment, Osmeña said USC’s survey was conducted during daytime and probably reached mostly unemployed respondents.
“The employed and educated voters were at work and my surveys show I have an even bigger lead in that sector. So it’s not close at all,” he said.
Rama, for his part, said he knows his group will win because of the turnout during their rallies.
He added that the crowd during their pulong-pulong sessions are thrice or even four times the size of those that attend the Bando Osmeña Pundok Kauswagan (BOPK) meetings.
Asked if he doesn’t believe in surveys, Rama said he does but that surveys are just to be taken as “an insight”.
Based on surveys commissioned by Team Rama, the mayor added that he has the lead over Osmeña.
Independent
As for the vice mayoral posts, results of the USC survey shows that reelectionist Vice Mayor Joy Augustus Young of BOPK has the lead over Team Rama’s candidate Councilor Edgardo Labella.
In the November survey, Young was favored by 234 out of the 499 respondents while Labella only got 173. There were 92 respondents who were undecided.
In the March survey, Young got 744 out of the 1,402 respondents while Labella got 565 respondents. There were 93 undecided respondents.
Sought for comment, Young said that the USC survey results match the results of the BOPK surveys.
“At least Team Rama cannot question those results of the USC surveys, because they are independent,” he added.
Labella was not available for comment yesterday.
As for the north district congressional race, the USC survey results shows that BOPK’s Raul del Mar has the lead against Team Rama’s bet Anabelle Rama.
In the November survey, del Mar was favored by 244 out of the 288 respondents while Anabelle got 18. Twenty-six respondents were undecided.
Different
In the March survey, del Mar was picked by 583 out of 685 respondents while Anabelle got 75. Twenty-seven respondents were undecided.
Based on the data, Abrenica said that 8 out of 10 voters in the north district favored del Mar.
As for the south district congressional race, the USC survey shows that Councilor Rodrigo Abellanosa of BOPK has the lead against Team Rama’s Aristotle Batuhan.
In the November survey, Abellanosa was favored by 113 out of the 211 respondents while Batuhan got 80. Thirty-eight respondents were undecided.
In the March survey, Abellanosa got 460 out of the 717 respondents while Batuhan got 223. Thirty-four respondents were undecided.
From the data, Abrenica said that Abellanosa is preferred by six out of 10 voters.
Sought for comment, Atty. Batuhan said that the only survey that matters now is that of May 13. He also said, though, that his surveys show a different result.
Margins
Abellanosa, for his part, said the USC result confirms the results of BOPK’s surveys.
Based on their records, Abrenica said the November survey’s margin of error was plus-minus 4.3 percent while the March survey’s margin of error was plus-minus 2.5 percent.
Grace Magalzo, chairperson of the USC Political Science Department, said their survey is just a guide, adding that political preferences of the voters in the city may have changed with the start of the local campaign period last March 30.
She added that vote-buying on the night of the Election Day may cause the city’s constituents to change their preferences.
“But we really hope that voters will vote based on their conscience. We hope that they vote base on the politics of accomplishments and not based on the politics of money,” she said.